Introduction to Bayesian Modeling

Bayes Problem: Given the number of times in which an unknown event has happened and failed - Requires the chance that the probability of its happening in a single trial lies somewhere between any two degrees of probability that can be named.

Bayesian statistics used probability as the only way to describe uncertainty in both data and parameter. Everything that is not known for certain are modeled with distributions and treated as random variables.

	Exposed	Unexposed
Diseased	a	b	m1
Not Diseased	c	d	m0
	n1	n0	n

Recall the odds ratio (OR) is the probability of having an outcome (disease) compared to the probability of not having the outcome: ad / bc

Bayesian Statistics takes the point of view that OR and RR are uncertain unobservable quantities.